As Democrats surged to a double-digit lead in the generic congressional ballot and a cascade of White House controversies has pushed Donald Trump’s approval to a record low, a blue tsunami appears to be emerging in Texas.
According to the Texas Secretary of State’s office, more Democratic voters than Republicans have cast ballots ahead of the next primary elections in Texas, in a sign that a blue wave is building ahead of the midterm elections.
As of the time of this report, 168,000 voters had cast ballots in the Democratic primary in person or by mail in the state’s ten largest counties through the end of Sunday. By contrast, 138,000 voters had cast ballots in the Republican primary.
It is the first time in a decade that Texas Democrats have turned in more ballots than Republicans at this point in the early voting window. And it’s the first time in 12 years that Democrats outpaced Republicans in a midterm election year.
This year’s data show a marked increase in the number of Democratic voters who have cast early ballots than in previous midterm years. Four years ago, just 90,000 Democratic voters showed up during the first six days of early voting. In 2010, only 71,000 Democrats had voted early.
“If you want to compare Democratic turnout to Democratic turnout, it is climbing exponentially this year,” said Ed Espinoza, the executive director of the Democratic-leaning Progress Texas, according to The Hill. “You can’t underestimate the surge that we’re seeing out there with the blue wave coming.
The last time Democrats outpaced Republicans came in 2008, when Hillary Clinton and former President Obama were locked in a pitched battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.
This year, Republicans are sounding the alarm over higher Democratic turnout. In a fundraising email, Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) campaign warned supporters about vote totals coming in below expectations.
“Numbers for the first week of Early Voting should shock every conservative to their core,” Abbott’s campaign wrote. “If these trends continue, we could be in real trouble come Election Day.”
Republicans closed the generic ballot gap on Democrats in January, raising hopes that the GOP could hang on to the House in November. But now Republicans have seen their gains almost completely wiped out, underscoring their concerns that the party could be in for a bruising midterm election battle this year.
A new CNN survey released Monday put the Democratic advantage in the congressional generic ballot at an eye-popping 16 points. The margin in the RealClearPolitics average has returned to nearly 10 points, after Republicans crept to within 7 points earlier this month.
In that time, the White House has been racked by a string of controversies, ranging from a senior official who resigned after his ex-wives accused him of abuse to allegations that President Trump had affairs with an adult-film star and a Playboy model.
