With the election under way, all the odds are moving in Hillary Clinton’s favor. Our electoral map gives Clinton a Strong chance of winning 323 electoral votes. While not overwhelming, that is a substantial win for Clinton. All the latest polls suggest that Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.
According to the same projection model, the Senate is likely to shift to a Democratic majority, with 51 seats, or 50 seats and Tim Kaine as the vice presidential tie-breaker.
Our projection actually follows a fairly traditional electoral map, which shows Trump keeping Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia, even though Clinton is likely to make it a tight race.
According to the latest polling averages, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton. The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers, makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her. All three states are more than 80-percent likely to swing Democratic.
New Hampshire polls have been shifting recently, but we predict those four electoral votes will go to Clinton with more than 90 percent certainty. Additionally, Clinton should fairly easily hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
That leaves Ohio as the last critical state. It’s the closest in the race. But, according to the latest polling trend has moved toward Trump, who is leading by 1 point on election day. However, if the Clinton campaign’s ground game is able to stimulate turnout, it can tilt Ohio in her direction.
Third-party candidates aren’t likely to be a factor. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has been polling at 5 percent or less on average. And Green Party nominee Jill Stein isn’t likely to pull much of the vote in the states where she’s on the ballot. Independent Evan McMullin will probably take a sizable share of the vote in Utah, but not enough to beat Trump.