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The Senate Majority Is Suddenly In Play And Democrats Have Momentum


The Senate Majority Is Suddenly In Play And Democrats Have Momentum

With less than a year before the 2020 election, the overall Senate landscape is shifting as Senate races are turning more competitive and Democrats appear to have expanded the playing field enough to put Republicans’ majority at risk, according to a new analysis by Cook Political report.

The report notes that while voters’ opinions on impeachment are as galvanized as they are polarized, Democrats appear to be gaining momentum. There are four Senate incumbents seeking re-election in November for whom the vote to acquit Trump will be difficult.

Republican U.S. Sens. Martha McSally in Arizona, Corey Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine, a vote to remove Trump from office is likely to earn them very credible primary opposition, something that would hurt their re-election efforts. But, a vote to acquit Trump doesn’t help them appeal to the kind of college-educated suburban voters they need to win. For these four incumbents, there is no easy answer, making the possibility that there might not even be a Senate trial seem appealing.

From the report:

“If there is anything that sticks out in Senate races this cycle, it’s the early spending on television advertising in the most competitive races. As of December 19, just over $32.5 million has been spent in eight key races. Democrats have outspent Republicans, $21.9 million to $10.6 million, according to data provided by Advertising Analytics. The Senate race in Maine has seen the highest level of spending at $8.2 million.

To put this in some perspective, Collins spent $5.6 million on her 2014 re-election bid, and independent expenditures amounted to less than $2 million. Advertising Analytics estimates that $55 million will be spent on television advertising in Maine this cycle, an astonishing amount for a state with three relatively inexpensive media markets. Democrats have outspent Republicans almost two to one and nearly all that money has been on ads criticizing Collins.”

“Democrats have also outspent Republicans in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Kentucky. Republicans have spent considerably more than Democrats in Alabama and North Carolina, but most of the money is being spent in GOP primaries. Spending in Michigan is comes closest to resembling something like parity with Democrats spending $1.8 million to $1.25 million for Republicans. For those who still believe that this race won’t end up in Toss Up before the fall, this level of spending should put those doubts to rest.”

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